At Kentucky Derby confused fans betting on jockey Calvin Borel, not horse, see latest odds

Just how confusing is this Kentucky Derby field?

Calvn Borel's mount Twice the Appeal, 30/1 under any other jockey, is just 7/1 and second favorite in the early betting.

That is testament to the Churchill Downs fans love and respect for Borel who has won three of the last four derbies.

But it is also a testament to how confusing and mixed up this year's derby field looks.

With the withdrawal of Uncle Mo it becomes even more of a crap shoot and bettors on track on Friday were making it clear that Borel the jockey is a better bet to win the derby than most of the horses in the race.

I will be amazed if Twice the Appeal wins the race but then again I was astonished that Mine That Bird won at 50/1 two years ago with Borel on board.

Bettors are saying 'never say never' when it comes to Borel but the good news for me is that the money on Borel makes better odds for others.

As I have written I really like Soldat currently 17/1 and with the withdrawal of Uncle Mo even more so.

Uncle Mo would have been one of those wanting to stalk the early speed which is what Soldat will likely be doing.

Soldat now also has the highest Beyer in the field at 103 from an allowance race at Gulfstream earlier this year.

I pick him on top with Stay Thirsty and Mucho Macho Man in the exotics along with Pants on Fire and outsider Derby Kitten who I think can run a big one.

The derby jinx on Todd Pletcher has continued with Uncle Mo's departure and it is the second year in a row that his favored horse has been withdrawn.

Stay Thirsty is not a bad substitute however, and I expect him to run a big race.
Here are the odds as of Saturday morning
Dialed In (9-2)
Twice the Appeal (7-1)
Nehro (7-1)
Pants on Fire (9-1)
Midnight Interlude (10-1)
Mucho Macho Man (12-1)
Archarcharch (13-1)
Stay Thirsty (17-1)
Soldat (17-1)
Shackleford (19-1)
Master of Hounds (18-1)
Twinspired (21-1)
Animal Kingdom (24-1)
Watch Me Go (29-1)
Derby Kitten (29-1)
Santiva (30-1)
Brilliant Speed (30-1)
Decisive Moment (42-1)
Comma to the Top (43-1)

Bill O'Reilly may win the Kentucky Derby this year-- The Factor is now favorite for 'Run for the Roses'

Bill O'Reilly will be favorite to win the Kentucky Derby this year.

Well not exactly --- but a horse named after him 'The Factor' is currently the favorite and will be even more so if he wins the Arkansas Derby today.


The Factor is called after the Irish Fox News mega star because his owner, Charles Bolton is huge fan of the show and watches it every night.

The Factor is a speed demon, a horse who breaks in front and tries to carry his speed all the way-- kinda like O'Reilly when you think of it who is always fastest out of the gate when controversy breaks.

http://youtu.be/nKH84qN4sxQ


He is trained by Bob Baffert who knows a thing or two about wining Kentucky Derbies as he has won three of them and almost won the Triple Crown with both Real Quiet and Silver Charm.

Now he has his best chance since that horse with The Factor who was thought to have distance limitations because he runs so fast early in the race.

However last time out in Oaklawn Park going around two turns for the first time he burned off all the opposition well before the straight.

If he does the same today then Bill Reilly may well book his tickets to Kentucky the first Saturday in May.

The Factor will come out running that's for sure like the man who hosts the shows he is named after.

Last week the previous hot favorite Uncle Mo ran like one of O'Reilly's pinheads in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and suddenly the entire Kentucky Derby seems wide open.

The connections of The Factor will be hoping to fill that gap tomorrow